Bitcoin has entered the top 5 assets globally, ranked by market cap—overtaking silver, Alphabet and Amazon.
TORONTO, ON (May 10 2025) While politics was top of mind for most Canadians in late April, Bitcoin has mounted a quiet price comeback to CA$145,000 as of writing–heights not seen for the asset since late February.
The timing of the rally is especially surprising: both bitcoin and the NASDAQ popped on May 1, bucking the conventional investing wisdom that tells investors to “sell in May and go away.” So far, bitcoin’s 2025 price behavior is the reverse of 2024, when BTC rallied to all-time highs in Q1 before cratering into a summer lull period in Q2.
Demand has been visible across U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. Since April 21, the funds absorbed a net $4.8 billion of inflows–aided by investor flight from U.S. treasuries and other U.S. based assets.
Indeed, the US dollar grew weak in April–and this starts to offer some insight into what’s driving the market rally.
The US dollar rapidly fell from 1.43 CAD to 1.39 CAD between April 8 and April 11. April 9 was precisely when the U.S. announced a 90-day pause for tariffs against countries not retaliating with reciprocal tariffs, triggering positive price action for bitcoin and stocks alike.
The rally continued on April 22 after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the tariff standoff “unsustainable”, further signaling intentions to de-escalate the trade war. On that day alone, the Bitcoin ETFs absorbed over $900 million worth of inflows.
Then there’s U.S. economic data, which is now pointing towards recession. Last Wednesday, data showed the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of such declines.
Though bitcoin’s price slightly declined in the immediate aftermath of that news, Bitwise crypto research analyst André Dragosch believes this is fast becoming a tailwind for BTC, rather than a headwind.
“I think the bull market continues,” he told Decrypt last week. While a U.S. recession would impact U.S. companies’ ability to generate revenue, he noted that BTC doesn’t generate revenue at all, being valued for entirely different reasons. Furthermore, a recession would likely be met with lowered interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which lead to cheaper borrowing costs, more liquidity, and generally, a higher bitcoin price.
“It’s an asset that’s disconnected from the system… systemic risks are not good equities,” he said. “Bitcoin tends to have a high inverse sensitivity to the dollar. If you expect some kind of structural depreciation of the dollar, Bitcoin might be a perfect hedge.”
According to on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant, “liquidity” has already returned to the crypto market.
“Stablecoin market cap just hit $220B, a new record. Bitcoin exits bearish phase as capital returns to the market,” the company’s account tweeted on Friday.
That said, fellow analysts over at Glassnode believe the USD $95K to $98K price zone is a difficult point of resistance. Many coins were acquired in this area, and a price of US$100,000 marks a key level at which many long-term holders are expected to begin selling their coins more aggressively.
“A clean breakout could open the path to price discovery above $100K,” Glassnode tweeted Friday.
That breakout may now be underway. After a sideways day on May 7th, hovering in the resistance levels quoted above, Bitcoin broke free on the 8th, seemingly clearing US$100K with ease.
Fidelity Encourages Public Companies to Consider Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
Fidelity has been strongly advocating for public companies to consider Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. At Strategy World 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets’ Vice President of Research, Chris Kuiper, presented data showing that companies holding Bitcoin have outperformed those that do not, suggesting that even a modest 1–5% allocation could enhance shareholder value. Remember, fiduciary duty legally requires companies to act in the best interest of their shareholders. Expect this trend to continue.
US States Are Serious About Bitcoin Reserves
We’ve covered the introduction of strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation by many US states in this bulletin—they’re now starting to pass.
On May 6, 2025, New Hampshire became the first state to greenlight a strategic Bitcoin reserve, allowing up to 5% of its public funds to be invested in Bitcoin. Big moves for a state treasury.
Meanwhile, Arizona has also passed a bill to create a Bitcoin reserve for managing unclaimed digital assets. More on this in the next section.
Additional bills to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves are live in 18 more US states—at varying levels—with Texas being the most likely to pass legislation next.
Arizona’s Bitcoin Reserve Sparks Debate
Arizona’s new law to manage unclaimed Bitcoin and other digital assets has some folks scratching their heads. Signed on May 7, 2025, the bill lets the state take control of digital assets that go untouched for three years. And while there is a process to reclaim your Bitcoin if seized, it’s a stark reminder that “not your keys, not your coins.”
Notably, this controversial move only applies to custodial platforms (e.g, exchanges) that hold your Bitcoin for you, since the state (or anyone else) can’t access self-custodial wallets where only you control the keys.
This is why Beaver is non-custodial, and when you buy bitcoin with Beaver, we deliver it directly to your personal Bitcoin wallet where only you control the keys.
Strategy Raising Another $21 Billion To Buy Bitcoin
Strategy reported a Q1 loss of $16.49 per common share on Thursday, resulting from the declining value of its underlying bitcoin holdings.
Did that stop them from doubling down on bitcoin? Not at all.
On the same day, Strategy announced that it would issue another $21 billion worth of common stock to buy BTC.
This followed a massive $1.4 billion bitcoin purchase from Strategy earlier in the week, bringing its total BTC holdings to 553,555 BTC.
Stay humble,
Andrew
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