Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith is moving toward an independent Alberta. (Photo: Chris Schwarz / Government of Alberta / Flickr)
TORONTO, ON (April 30 2025) “Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome”. I’ve always loved this quote because it highlights the idea of being able to make accurate predictions just by understanding the incentives of the people involved.
Reflecting on Canada’s election, I think it’s important to try and understand the incentives that drove the result, and where we might be headed as a country.
First, the result.
A hung parliament with a minority Liberal government under Mark Carney.
Disappointing.
Carney is a globalist central banker who feeds off crises and is in favour of CBDCs. His spending plan surpasses Trudeau’s, promising even more government expansion, more inflation, a further widening of the gap between the rich and poor, more division among Canadians and a deepening of the already brutal cost-of-living crisis.
That said, I think my sentiment is shared best by those who framed the vote as a choice between a rapid decline with the Liberals or a slower decline with the Conservatives. Either way it’s down.
Why? Our country is facing serious problems that neither party is talking about.
Julius Ruechel, a Canadian author and independent journalist, warned on X that our election has brought Canada “one step closer to the end” as a unified nation, arguing neither Carney nor Poilievre addressed the “destructive forces” tearing our country apart.
He lists the destructive forces (here I’m quoting with some paraphrasing):
- our broken and undemocratic parliamentary system
- the fraudulent climate hoax
- equalization payments
- the politicization of our justice system, our police, the military, and public health institutions
- the abuse of power during Covid
- funding and membership of the UN, WHO and NATO
- the consequences of a decade of mass migration
- the influence of foreign governments (i.e. China) in our political system
- the drug trade and money laundering that is happening on an industrial scale in our country
- constitutional protections for inalienable free speech
- the lack of honest nuanced adult conversation about residential schools
- the failure to properly address indigenous rights issues
- the right to defend life and property via the inalienable right to bear arms, castle doctrine, and stand-your-ground laws
- local communities lacking political authority
And the absence of a plan by either party to:
- revive small businesses
- dismantle federal institutional bureaucracy
- cultivate mutually beneficial trade relations with the US
- de-escalate or disengage from the Ukraine War
- end destructive budget deficits, eliminate our national debt and bring back sound, non-inflationary monetary policies
That’s a long list, but regardless of your stance I think we can agree that most of these issues are either actually destructive (some more than others) or are destructive via the division they sow among Canadians.
So why are they being ignored?
In another post, Ruechel highlights that districts benefiting from government handouts—welfare, corporate welfare, or high public sector employment—tend to vote left. This creates loyal Liberal voting blocs like we see in Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Atlantic Canada and Quebec. Keep in mind, 1 in 4 employed Canadians work for the government.
“This is why, once government spending grows beyond a certain point, leftist parties can build loyal voting coalitions that stay loyal even when the rest of the country is completely falling apart..”
In other words, a lot of people are incentivized to vote left. And the liberal government is incentivized to keep spending to stay in power.
The best example of this feedback loop (there are many) might be the CBC, which received $1.4 billion in annual government funding. In return, the CBC makes sure their viewers know exactly who to vote for.
If it really is this simple, it makes sense why the issues mentioned by Ruechel go largely ignored. The Liberal party knows their base just wants to keep the gravy train flowing.
Enter Trump and his tariffs. The perfect boogeyman. “A crisis like no other.” But most importantly—a moral high ground for voting Liberal once more.
The rest is history.
Let’s get back to Ruechel. What does he mean by “the end of Canada as a unified country”?
The 1997 book The Sovereign Individual is famous among bitcoiners for its accurate predictions of the world we live in today, including the prediction of Bitcoin itself (referred to in the book as encrypted “cybercash” or “cybermoney” outside the control of central banks), alongside its thesis outlining the fall of the nation state.
In the book, they predict that Canada would dissolve “well before the first quarter of the twenty first century” as a result of its federal debt exceeding 100% of GDP, and regional disparities (e.g, the separatist movement in Quebec).
Today, Quebec still receives money from the rest of Canada in the form of equalization payments, but according to the authors, if they ever sense the well is running dry, they might be wise to strike out on their own and attempt to absolve themselves from a proportional amount of the federal debt.
The authors even go as far as to say that not if, but—”When Canada breaks apart..” when commenting on the advantages Alberta and British Columbia would have as independent provinces, over their neighbours in the States.
As mentioned, Carney’s proposed spending surpasses even Trudeau’s, and that money is either coming from taxes or as new money (e.g, “stimulus”), adding to the already massive federal debt (and resulting in more inflation). Following that, it’s entirely possible that those being plundered to pay for our government’s spending decide that enough is enough.
And that brings us back to Alberta.
The following is from a post by Paul Mitchell on X. It’s an opinion I’ve seen echoed widely over the last two days:
“It’s time for Albertans to stop playing in a rigged game that is designed to abuse and rob us. It’s time to fire Ottawa and free Alberta. It’s time to strike out on our own. We owe it to future generations of Albertans to deliver them an independent Alberta offering prosperity and liberty for all Albertans … There’s no more excuses to stay in a system that does nothing but harm us. Let’s go.”
Sure, it was a polarizing election and emotions are running high, but it’s hard to ignore the momentum of the forces behind Paul’s sentiment. The incentives are there for Alberta to become independent. They’ve been there for a long time—and under Carney they’ll only grow stronger.
In fact, as I’m writing this, the Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, has already come out making moves, updating the Citizen Initiative Act to now only require 177,000 signatures to trigger a referendum on Alberta independence.
In this video, she left little room for ambiguity.
“Alberta has had enough. Enough with Ottawa trampling over our provincial jurisdiction like Canada’s constitution doesn’t exist. Enough of the meaningless virtue signalling, climate policies, that only make Canadians poorer and threaten our energy security. Enough of their “screw the west we’ll take the rest” mentality. Enough with their soft on crime policies that let repeat offenders roam the streets on bail. Enough of their unsafe supply, open border policies, their censorship laws, the list goes on and on..”
We could be witnessing the first domino to fall, and the beginning of the end, of Canada as a unified country.
Stay humble,
Aubrey
Founder, CEO
Beaver Bitcoin
Writer’s note: Hey gang, it’s Aubrey filling in for Andrew (he’ll be back next week). This was a heavier issue. Ignorance is no longer an option. And while the world might seem upside down, the one thing we can count on is Bitcoin. Decentralized, global, apolitical, limited in supply. The one thing they can’t f*ck with (though they can try). If you’re ready to buy bitcoin, sign up for a Beaver Bitcoin account. If you have questions or you’re not sure, schedule a call with me personally. Thanks for reading, see you next week.