Did HBO Identify Satoshi Nakamoto’s True Identity?

Has HBO solved the 15-year mystery of who created Bitcoin?

Beaver Bulletin · October 10, 2024 · By Andrew Throuvalas

1. HBO aired a documentary on Tuesday that they claimed would identify the real identity of Satoshi Nakamoto – Bitcoin’s creator.

Their top suspect? Peter Todd – a Canadian who began contributing to Bitcoin’s code in 2012.

“What if the real reason for using the name Satoshi, for the anonymity, was so that people could take bitcoin seriously, so they could believe it was created by [a famous cryptographer] and not some kid still in school,” said HBO filmmaker Cullen Hoback while narrating the documentary.

Todd was still in his early 20s and finishing a fine arts degree in 2008 when the Bitcoin whitepaper was published. He’s been involved in various early “Bitcoin 2.0” projects including colored coins and counterparty, and was also a fierce voice in favor of the “small blockers” during Bitcoin’s 2015 to 2017 blocksize wars.

Todd fiercely denied being Satoshi, calling the claim “ludicrous.”

The documentary’s thesis went something like this: in 2010, Todd seemingly finished one of Satoshi’s Bitcoin Talk forum posts in the replies, but from his own account by accident rather than from Satoshi’s. He later implemented a Bitcoin code-change proposal called “replace by fee” which was discussed in that thread. 

Many including BitMEX Research found this claim to be massively speculative, stating that Todd’s reply could clearly just be an ordinary reply to the actual Satoshi’s post. Aside from that, Cullen’s evidence boiled down to Satoshi regularly posting more on the weekends (in alignment with a student’s timeline) and that Todd once discussed “sacrificing” Satoshi’s coins – which most now believe will never move. 

Before the documentary aired, Todd was nowhere to be found on the Polymarket betting list of who would be identified. Bettors favouring names like Nick Szabo and Adam Back, who were involved in early technology that Satoshi later built upon. 

Needless to say, hardly any Bitcoiners left the film feeling convinced that Todd created Bitcoin. But it wouldn’t be a new Bitcoin bull market if not for someone claiming they’d identified its creator again, would it?

2. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called on El Salvador to narrow its Bitcoin “experiment” – again.

As reported by Reuters, an IMF spokesperson said at a Thursday press conference that the agency had recommended “limiting public sector exposure to Bitcoin,”“What we have recommended is a narrowing of the scope of the Bitcoin law, strengthening the regulatory framework and oversight of the Bitcoin ecosystem, and limiting public sector exposure to Bitcoin,” Kozack said. This comes shortly after the IMF called for an electricity tax against of up to 86% against Bitcoin miners in August, which would hypothetically help protect the climate. As usual, El Salvador has ignored the IMF’s recommendations and continued stacking exactly 1 BTC per day for its treasury, with on-chain data providing evidence. According to nayibtracker.com, the country is now up 41% in aggregate on its 5,897 BTC – a $56 million profit. 

3. A Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale looks like he’s selling his Bitcoin, according to on-chain data.

Last month, Arkham intelligence spotted an ancient Bitcoiner that had mined BTC as early as 2009, and yet never touched his coins until today. Over 1,189 Bitcoins have been identified as belonging to that same miner – who is now, apparently, sending some of his coins to a popular Bitcoin exchange. 

Interestingly, this is a separate whale from the entity that moved coins earlier in July that had been mined as early as January 2009. As far as blockchain analysts can tell, neither of these entities is Satoshi Nakamoto himself, who presumably controls 5% of the total Bitcoin supply.

4. Trump’s Polymarket odds are surging again – and Bitcoiners are happy about it. 

The former President is now considered 53% likely to win by crypto bettors, with his odds noticeably spiking within the last week. Trump has already promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin stockpile if re-elected in November and repeatedly floated the idea of using Bitcoin to wipe out the national debt.

Earlier this week, he also reiterated his promise to free Ross Ulbricht – the founder of darknet Bitcoin marketplace Silk Road who was sentenced to life in prison.

Some suspect that his surging odds might be due to one affluent PolyMarket bettor named Fredi9999. Holding 7.8 million shares in favor of Trump, rumors are circulating that the bettor could actually be Elon Musk, who is now avidly pro-Trump.”Trump.

Trump invented Bitcoin,” tweeted journalist Tim Pool on Tuesday.

Stay humble,

Andrew